Behind Trump’s bluster there’s a sobering realisation he is losing the public

In interviews and speeches, US President Donald Trump has maintained that midterm politics don’t affect his decisions on Iran, that the war has been worth the cost, and that he would do it all over again, despite Republicans bracing for defeat in November.

But in some private conversation with advisers, Trump has signalled that he understands his decisions on the war have contributed to the especially poor political environment his party faces – making the president more intent on helping Republicans mitigate the expected losses.

Trump in recent weeks has become sober about the gravity of the political situation, listening intently as he is presented with often discouraging polling, according to four people with knowledge of his recent comments, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

That shift has prompted him to take more action on the midterms – pledging to stump for candidates and opening his war chest in competitive races, for example – although it remains to be seen how effectively Republicans can gain ground over the next six weeks.

Trump has long dismissed unfavourable polls, fastening his attention on surveys that present him in an artificially positive light. He often says negative surveys are fake and not to be believed . Increasingly, however, he has accepted his team’s polling that shows his and his party’s poor standing with voters, his advisers say.

Several of Trump’s advisers said they had become “increasingly blunt” with him, as one put it, and that in recent weeks he was listening to them about the electoral reality the GOP faces. It didn’t always translate to a good mood for Trump.

The president, who faces his lowest approval rating of his second term, has focused much of his attention this year on a war with Iran that has sharply raised oil prices and on construction projects in Washington to cement his legacy. That came even as he failed to meaningfully lower prices, which he pledged to do while he campaigned in 2024.

“He definitely feels like some of his decisions have led to the dynamics where he’s unpopular and things aren’t looking great for the midterms,” one of the people said.

A second person who confirmed Trump has subtly acknowledged some degree of responsibility for the situation noted he has made similar remarks in public.

Another person in frequent communication with Trump about the midterms, however, pushed back on the notion that he has accepted any blame, saying he feels strongly that his not being on the ballot this year is the biggest problem the GOP faces.

For months, Trump publicly expressed a lack of concern about political conditions, commenting about how the party in power typically loses the midterms regardless of other factors, and insisting that voters’ economic frustration wouldn’t affect his decision-making on the war.

“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing,” Trump said in May, when asked whether voters’ cost-of-living concerns would push him to a deal with Iran. “We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon, that’s all.