Earth to Albo: your radar malfunctioned again. The PM can’t afford many more mistakes

The midterm blues that have gripped Anthony Albanese and his government have been induced by a host of factors, mainly the economy but also a bad dose of meloncholia .

Despite furious peddling, spending, dealmaking and spinning, the dial has barely shifted for months. One Nation is untouchable, the opposition so far remains unelectable, and Labor is increasingly unloved.

It would help if for once in his life Donald Trump lived up to his words and ended the Ukraine and Iran wars. But he can’t, so cost of living will continue to erode Labor’s support. If interest rates rise again – more likely now thanks to Wednesday’s stronger than expected growth numbers – and stay high, they could consume the government, turning to dust the prospect of it holding on to majority government in 2028, a given not so long ago.

Another reason for Labor’s decline and One Nation’s rise is the silly, avoidable, unforgettable stuff that detracts from whatever positive news there might be and which provides people with even more incentive, as if they need it, to turn off the major parties.

Albanese can still come good, assuming he accepts his competitors either inside or outside the party are not easybeats, that the 2025 election did not render him invincible and that acts of self harm can destroy leaders. Think Scott Morrison .

The Liberals are in much worse shape, paying the price for acting as if the 2022 election and every electoral contest since was an aberration. Their task appears insurmountable.

Labor still hopes for a silver lining out of an inevitable loss at the Victorian state election in November. Senior figures theorise that One Nation will effectively wipe out National Party MPs (as a prelude to eliminating them across the country), forcing Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson to govern with the support of One Nation, and that the resulting chaos and dysfunction will damage both the Liberals and One Nation federally.

But what if the chaos and dysfunction is no worse than what people are already witnessing? Or if there is a breakdown and it doesn’t arrive in time for the 2028 election? Or that voters decide a procession of dud One Nation candidates present no greater threat to democracy than the alleged corruption revealed almost daily inside Victorian Labor and the NSW Liberals?

Or that voters looking for people to trust or craving certainty see only broken promises and leaders treating them like mugs.

It took six weeks and the scandal involving the Sydney Swans for Albanese to fully admit his error in indulging in a podcast – which according to my information he decided to do, then told his staff – where he disrespected the Japanese prime minister, his wife and women generally.