Why this new Ukraine pact is a war-game changer for Australia

When Russia sent its first cruise missiles slamming into Kyiv and its mighty convoy roared toward the Ukrainian capital, the Western world expected that it would fall under Moscow’s control within three days. Some commentators described it as a David versus Goliath contest which David was sure to lose. They had forgotten the moral of the Old Testament story.

Yes, David was just a boy with a slingshot against a heavily armed warrior standing nine feet and nine inches tall. But with courage, good aim and a righteous cause, David killed the towering Philistine.

Ukraine not only has survived four-and-a-half years of Russian onslaught; it now has the advantage over its giant neighbour.

“Ukraine has had strategic momentum for the last six months,” the Australian retired major general Mick Ryan, a close student of the war, tells me. “Its strike campaign is hurting Russia, and it’s hurting Russia’s reputation.”

The extraordinary reversal of odds was demonstrated anew on the weekend; drones struck a Moscow oil refinery just 25 kilometres from the Kremlin. The refinery was left in flames. Ukraine is bringing the war right into Vladimir Putin’s capital.

To reach their target, Ukraine’s drones had to travel over 3000 kilometres and penetrate one of the most intensely protected air defence zones in the world. Moscow’s mayor said it was the biggest attack on his city yet, with some 450 Ukrainian drones intercepted.

The attack was timed to punctuate the third and final day of voting in Russia’s parliamentary election.

The election outcome in Putin’s garrison state was predictable. The only anti-war party on the ballot, Yabloko, was banned from running. The time and targeting of the next Ukrainian assault is not so predictable.

Russian losses are so heavy, with total casualties estimated at 1.5 million men so far, that Putin is speculated to be preparing to announce a general mobilisation of men. He’s denied any such mass call up as unnecessary “today”. Now that the parliamentary election are finished, is it a possibility tomorrow?

“There’s a chance he’ll do that,” says Ryan. “But Ukraine will say, ‘OK, we will just be killing more Russians each month’.” The estimated current attrition rate of Russians killed and wounded is about 30,000 men a month. “Until Putin changes strategy, we’ll probably just see Ukraine kill more Russians.”

Of course, Ukraine continues to suffer heavy losses of its own, with estimated total casualties of about half a million, and continuing at a much lower rate than its enemy’s.

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies – a Washington-based research institute – estimates that, for most of the war, Russia was suffering two to three casualties, killed or wounded, for every one Ukrainian. But that this ratio rose to nearly eight Russians for every Ukrainian in the first half of 2026. Even that notorious pro-victor weather-vane, Donald Trump, has cooled his ardour for Putin and ceased his overt hostility to Volodymyr Zelensky. The US and Ukrainian presidents are to meet this week.

Australia rightly has supported Ukraine against Russia from the outset.