Debt concern looms large for voters, as Carroll struggles to break through

A mountain of state debt stands between Labor and a historic fourth term in office, with voters increasingly pessimistic about Victoria’s outlook and concerned about the financial burden of the Suburban Rail Loop.

A Resolve Political Monitor survey of Victorian respondents conducted last week lays bare the challenge before Ben Carroll, who since becoming premier seven weeks ago, has been unable to lift his own standing as preferred premier or Labor’s primary support above an election-losing 25 per cent.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, however, has nudged the Coalition’s primary support to a five-month high of 28 per cent, while support for One Nation held steady at 23 per cent.

Wilson also opened a sizeable gap as Victoria’s most popular political leader, with 28 per cent of respondents preferring her as premier compared to 20 per cent for Carroll, and 8 per cent for One Nation leader Warren Pickering.

Pickering, despite revelations of his previous drug use , drink-driving and dysfunctional family life, received a net-positive approval rating in the survey.

While changes to headline figures since the last RPM was conducted in August are within the poll’s margin for error, the survey provides a timely snapshot of the prevailing public mood as Victoria enters an unpredictable campaign season ahead of the election on November 28.

With Westpac economists pricing in an 83 per cent chance of another cash rate hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets later this month, and Victoria’s net debt climbing towards $200 billion, only 19 per cent of respondents said they expect the state’s outlook to get better, while 44 per cent said they expect it will get worse.

Anxiety about debt levels is being felt across Australia, with a national Resolve survey conducted over the same period finding that 74 per cent of respondents were concerned about the federal government’s $1 trillion of accumulated debt.

But at a state level, Victorians are more worried than people in other states, with 72 per cent expressing concern compared to 67 per cent in NSW and 63 per cent in Queensland, where the government’s pre-Olympic Games infrastructure binge this week triggered a credit downgrade from S&P Global.

“All the evidence is that debt and deficit are starting to figure in people’s vote decisions again,” Resolve founder Jim Reed said. “They’re looking at how much new announcements are going to cost, and if taxes are going up or down as a result.”

Reed said the sentiment in Victoria signalled a return to pre-crisis politics.

“This used to be the default before COVID,” he said. “Kevin Rudd was elected nearly 20 years ago partly because he positioned himself as more economically conservative than John Howard.