China watchers split on what a Trump-Xi summit will deliver

This week's Washington summit brings together the world's most powerful leaders, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, face to face at a time of deep strategic and economic rivalry.

The summit, which marks the Chinese president's first state visit to the US in 11 years, is expected to have artificial intelligence (AI), tariffs, rare earths, technology, and agricultural trade high on the agenda.

Mr Xi is scheduled to arrive Wednesday afternoon local time (Thursday morning in Australia) at Joint Base Andrews, where Mr Trump will personally greet him on the tarmac.

The three-day visit will include ceremonial events alongside the bilateral talks, including an arrival ceremony on the White House South Lawn, a military review in the Rose Garden, a state dinner and a visit to the National Archives.

Officials from both countries say they have made progress on AI and trade issues ahead of the meeting, but China watchers remain divided over what the talks will ultimately deliver.

Some see the meeting as an opportunity to stabilise relations, while others caution that the carefully choreographed encounter could amount to little more than political theatre.

Scott Kennedy, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington, DC, said the most likely outcome was an extension of the trade ceasefire struck at the Busan summit in October 2025, due to expire on November 10.

That deal saw China commit to continuing rare earth exports in exchange for a cap on US tariffs.

Mr Kennedy said he expected some agreements on specific goods, such as agricultural products and Boeing aircraft, building on commitments made when Mr Trump visited Beijing in May.

But he did not think it would shift the broader "stand-off", which he believed favours Beijing.

Mr Kennedy said Mr Trump in May effectively conceded to wind back arms sales to Taiwan, putting Washington at a disadvantage.

"I think China has got the most important things it's sought already — defence against potential re-escalation by the United States, and some progress on cross-strait issues in Taiwan," he said.

"So I don't see the US being able to wrangle any large concessions out of China on any big issues for the rest of the year.

The South China Morning Post reported on Saturday that the US was considering delaying the announcement of major Taiwan arms sales until after November's APEC summit in Shenzhen and December's G20 summit in Miami.