One Nation is after a state seat on the outskirts of Perth. What happens next may re-shape Australian politics

Where once a byelection for a state seat would have attracted little national attention, the remaking of the Australian political landscape in recent months has given such contests greater significance.

The next such byelection is on August 29 in the Western Australian state seat of Secret Harbour, triggered by the resignation of Labor government minister Paul Papalia.

Papalia had represented the seat, and its predecessor electorates, since 2007.

The area is Labor heartland, with the party’s two-party preferred vote averaging around 60% .

There is, however, the potential for a One Nation electoral upset.

The seat has many of the characteristics that analysts identify as conducive to a One Nation victory.

Secret Harbour is an outer metropolitan seat on the southern coastal outskirts of Perth.

Like many such electorates, Secret Harbour has high levels of mortgage and rental stress .

One Nation polls especially well in seats experiencing high levels of economic anxiety.

The seat’s demographic profile has led William Bowe, a leading election analyst, to suggest its “low ethnic diversity and abundance of trades workers make it promising territory for One Nation”.

A portent of the threat facing Labor is the 28.5% swing recorded against its primary vote at the 2025 state election.

Premier Roger Cook recently conceded it was “ absolutely ” possible the party would not retain the seat.

The Secret Harbour field There are two features of the electoral field of note.

The first is that the Liberals are fielding a candidate.