'Power of the purse': What Trump stands to lose in US midterm test

The 2026 United States midterm elections will be a crucial test of Donald Trump's political strength, with Democrats hoping to regain control of Congress and Republicans seeking to defy the historical tendency for a president's party to lose ground halfway through a term.

The November elections will determine control of the House of Representatives and could reshape the balance of power in Washington for the final two years of Trump's presidency.

The first midterm primaries were held in March and have continued in recent months, with Alaska, Florida and Wyoming holding their primaries this week.

For Democrats, the November midterms offer an opportunity to demonstrate that dissatisfaction with Trump can translate into electoral gains and to begin rebuilding the party ahead of the next general election in 2028.

For Republicans, the elections will test whether Trump's political strength remains sufficient to protect the party from the historical midterm backlash that has affected many previous administrations.

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And for Trump himself, a Democratic-controlled House could mean substantially greater scrutiny, investigations and political resistance during the final years of his presidency.

Wesley Widmaier, a professor at the Australian National University Department of International Relations, told SBS News an overall loss for Trump would restrict his influence.

"The House controls the power of the purse and is where budgets originate in the American system. A Democrat win would mean a loss of a lot of control for Trump," he said.

Ultimately, the midterms could provide the clearest indication yet of whether the political momentum in the US is shifting away from Trump and the Republican Party — or whether Republicans can defy the historical pattern and maintain their grip on Congress.

Every two years, US citizens elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, while roughly one-third of the Senate is elected.

The House of Representatives has the special power to initiate tax bills and to impeach officials, while the Senate approves presidential appointments, such as judges and cabinet members.

Unlike in Australia, voting in US elections is not compulsory, and midterm elections — those held between presidential elections — tend to have lower voter turnout and less media attention.

But Widmaier said they still have significance for US politics and decision-making.