Hanson’s migration plan is sloppy, but Albanese has missed the moment

The haphazard method by which One Nation landed its plan to temporarily lower the population through migration has added to doubts about its ability to run the country.

That doesn’t change the fact that Pauline Hanson’s plan for more departures than arrivals is a paradigm shift in the debate.

Labor stuffed up tactically in early August when Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke’s speech announcing an immigration crackdown was canned at the last minute.

That rare blunder became a broader strategic muddle as Labor’s internal divisions were exposed. Delays allowed vested interests to lobby for keeping strong flows of students and low-wage workers.

The void was filled by Hanson, who can move quickly because her party doesn’t bother with forecasts on the economic consequences major parties claim will be substantial .

Instead of landing on a compelling argument to convince voters that migration was working in the interests of Australians, not the other way around, Albanese has been making rote appeals to the diversity-as-strength mantra. A more substantive pivot was required for progressives to prove they had responsible solutions to what polls show is mainstream concern about migration.

The Hanson plan to cut by 750,000 Australia’s stock of 3 million temporary visas taps into a groundswell of community anxiety. Liberal migration policies are being wound back in many nations – Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Japan and Canada. Hanson cited centre-left Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s crackdown on international students. Right- and left-wing leaders in these nations have judged that migration rates are hurting them.

It’s not discussed much, but Hanson’s move also reflects elite bureaucratic opinion. Among other policy hardheads, former bureaucrat Martin Parkinson said migration had turned into a quasi-guest worker scheme that might be hurting productivity.

Former Labor adviser Henry Sherrell said last month that “a few tweaks” weren’t enough for Labor and that “keeping our hands in the sand” would fuel populism.

Business groups and Labor premiers have been warning the anti-migration sentiment could lead to economic carnage.

Enter Hanson and her killer line: “A larger economy on paper means nothing if Australians are poorer per person and cannot afford a home, find a hospital bed or get ahead.”

After years of anaemic growth and a 5 per cent drop in real wages since 2021, it’s a potent and plausible argument.

But the way One Nation landed its policy would be funny if it wasn’t so consequential.

Before Barnaby Joyce joined the party, One Nation’s website talked about capping the number of visas issued each year at 130,000. With more than that number departing, that would have led to net negative migration.