Victorian polls have Coalition leading Labor by narrow to large margins

It’s about three months until the Victorian state election on November 28.

Five polls have been released since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier on July 28.

These polls have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by between 51–49 (Morgan SMS) and 57–43 (Redbridge).

In four of the five polls, One Nation has dropped from the previous edition of those polls, although they were up one point in Resolve.

One Nation’s drop to the low 20s makes it easier for the Coalition to win a majority of the 88 lower house seats.

The Coalition and Labor are the leaders on primary votes, so the election is looking more like a standard two-party contest.

Carroll’s ratings are far better than Allan’s were, but he’s still on a negative net approval, except in Morgan.

There hasn’t been any improvement on voting intentions for Labor since the change in premier.

Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s net approval is in positive double digits and her popularity is helping the Coalition.

Labor has governed in Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27, so there’s probably an “it’s time” factor.

The Resolve poll is below.

I’ve previously covered the DemosAU, Morgan, Freshwater and Redbridge polls .

Victorian Resolve poll A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted August 9–15 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Coalition 27% of the primary vote (steady since the early July Resolve poll), Labor 25% (down two), One Nation 23% (up one), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 7% (steady) and others 6% (up one).

This is Labor’s lowest primary vote in a Victorian Resolve poll since before the May 2025 federal election.