Fears unregulated mining could imperil Pacific nations

Commercial deep-sea mining in the Pacific could begin in months without policy guardrails due to increasing rivalry between the US and China over critical minerals, a new report warns.

Analysis by the Lowy Institute has found mining could start as early as 2027, with the floor of the Pacific Ocean holding vast quantities of prized resources.

The contest between the world's two biggest economies is being is driven by demand created by batteries, weapons systems, and power grids.

The region's nations are split between the promise of economic spoils and potentially irreversible damage to the ecosystem, fisheries, food security, livelihoods and culture, according to the research.

It argues the absence of an international governance framework for commercial deep-sea mining leaves Pacific states negotiating without internationally agreed protections.

This also leaves them dependent on individual agreements drafted by companies seeking to mine their ocean floor.

"For the Pacific Island nations caught in the middle of this great power battle for critical mineral supremacy, the economic proposition is difficult to refuse," Dr Connor Graham writes.

"The problem is not that Pacific nations disagree, it is that they are being forced to negotiate individually against parties with vastly more resources, information, and legal capacity, and that the international framework designed to protect them has stalled."

Dr Graham said while Australia was yet to take a clear position on deep-sea mining in the Pacific, it has the standing, relationships, and institutional presence to make an impact.

This includes its membership in the Pacific Islands Forum and as a long-standing ally of the US.

"A commitment to standards that have not been written as a condition for activity that is about to begin is less of a policy, and more of an abstention," he said.

Countries including Australia have started to enter into deals for critical minerals, which are crucial for a number for emerging technologies.

The federal government has announced a $1.2 billion critical minerals strategic reserve to secure the supply of key minerals deemed crucial for Australia's economy and national security.