A storm is brewing south of Perth, and it ain’t the weather

Many voters who visited the early polling booth in Port Kennedy, 47 kilometres south of Perth, on Thursday were forced to drive through two massive puddles in the car park – evidence of the heavy rain the suburb experienced the day before.

But it’s not the weather that has made this Secret Harbour byelection one of the most intriguing in Western Australia’s recent history – it’s the political storm that has engulfed the sleepy coastal electorate.

The surge of One Nation in successive polls this year, and the party’s lower house success in the South Australian election earlier this year, has turned Secret Harbour into a genuine three-way contest between Pauline Hanson’s party, Labor and the Liberals.

As an outer suburban seat where One Nation is hoping to pull votes from the major parties, it will also be a litmus test for the 2028 federal election, with politicians including Canning Liberal MP Andrew Hastie and Labor’s federal Resources Minister Madeleine King to watch the result carefully.

Saturday’s byelection was triggered by the resignation of long-serving member and former corrective services minister Paul Papalia in July.

The seat has gone through many boundary and name changes over the years, but one constant is Labor’s grip on the region, which remains working class, aspirational and firmly in Perth’s mortgage belt.

Common gripes from voters include the failure to deliver the promised Karnup train station, cost of living, and housing.

One Nation’s candidate, 39-year-old gym franchise owner Luke Herdegen, says federal Labor’s management of immigration has made housing and cost of living worse, and he’s confident he’ll be the beneficiary of a large protest vote against the Commonwealth and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

“Immigration is definitely starting to manifest as a homelessness problem because of the lack of housing, and it ties into the infrastructure,” he said.

“There’s some local issues down here as well with local infrastructure just not being delivered.

“Labor have held this seat down here for nearly 100 years, like the whole area, so they just haven’t invested the money, and people are feeling neglected.”

Labor’s candidate Georgia Tree currently works for Woodside in government relations, and was previously a staffer to Resources Minister Madeleine King.

Tree agreed that cost of living was regularly brought up with her during her team’s extensive doorknocking campaign, but insisted WA Labor had a good story to tell with recent policies including the party’s $100 fuel support payment and flat $2.80 public transport fares.

“Of course people are feeling the pinch, and it’s easier to blame incumbent governments, but I think a lot of people, when you do speak to them and tease it out a bit, they’re happy with what WA Labor is delivering, and also people know it’s a global inflation crisis,” she said.