Why there are no guarantees with Michael Cheika’s second coming

“As I said very clearly on my return, I am not and never will be a Messiah; it will take a team effort.”

So said John O’Neill in The Sun-Herald in 2009, two years into his second spell as chief executive of the Australian Rugby Union, as it was called then. The tenure proved more difficult than the first, and successful second comings in Australian rugby are a tricky business – Eddie Jones being the most recent piece of evidence .

So, while Michael Cheika’s return to the Waratahs is something to be welcomed – he’s one of the big beasts of the coaching jungle – it does come with a warning.

It’s not as if O’Neill, Jones or Cheika lose the qualities that made them successful in the first instance. It’s that the world around them changes, and they return to jobs that are more complex and challenging than before.

Superficially, there are some similarities between Cheika’s first crack at the Waratahs and his second.

Take a look at the Super Rugby ladder in 2012: the Waratahs finished third in the five-team Australian conference, but 23 competition points behind both the Reds and Brumbies with four wins and 12 losses.

In Cheika’s first year in charge in 2013, NSW again finished third in their conference, but they narrowed the gap considerably to the Reds and Brumbies, with eight wins and eight losses.

So, successfully chasing the Reds and Brumbies is familiar territory for Cheika. That challenge will spin his wheels because he is a very proud New South Welshman.

But the landscape has changed since 2013 that Cheika is facing a bigger challenge, for two reasons.

First, the Brumbies and Reds have established such successful programs in the intervening years that both clubs supply the No.9-No.10 combinations in the Wallabies squad.

Second – and this is arguably the more significant point – the Western Force have emerged as a competitive force in Super Rugby Pacific with some of the better players in Australian rugby.

If not for halfback Henry Robertson’s ACL injury, they too would have supplied a No.9-No.10 combination to the Wallabies squad.

Neither does the situation across the ditch offer much relief for Cheika.

The Hurricanes have emerged as a powerhouse, the Chiefs have about a dozen All Blacks and the Crusaders have re-signed Richie Mo’unga. The Blues are in talks with Ardie Savea, too, and have landed the latest All Blacks No.8 Semisi Ta’eiloa.