Six months in, Iran’s regime stands, US goals remain unmet

Still, six months after the US and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran, the conflict drags on. The Trump administration has replaced its military war with an economic one, but the result is likely to be no different, analysts say, with a lack of American clarity about goals, a decline in US credibility and a strategic defeat.

One thing remains constant, however. The ordinary people of Iran are bearing the brunt of the war, victims of both the United States and their own leaders.

On the first day of the war, February 28, US President Donald Trump promised Iranians that “ the hour of your freedom is at hand ”. Six months later, his administration is trying to impoverish them further, hoping against hope that they will revolt and overthrow a repressive, militarised regime.

The Iranian leadership, increasingly dominated by military men, sees its own survival as the nation’s, and considers the sacrifices of ordinary Iranians as a necessary act of patriotism and even martyrdom. It has become ever more ruthless in stamping out the slightest signs of dissent.

It is difficult to dress up what has clearly been a US failure to bend Iran to its will, despite the might of the combined US and Israeli militaries. Not only has the Islamic Republic survived, but it effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz. It has strengthened its influence in the region, with even the countries it was bombing a few months ago trying to reinvigorate ties with Iran.

“The war has failed to deliver US objectives,” says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and head of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, judges the war a failure.

“We did a lot of damage to Iran, but they have come out stronger than before,” she says. Iran’s neighbours have decided they must find a modus vivendi with an Islamic Republic that is not going away.

American credibility among allies has suffered along with Trump’s own reputation for avoiding costly, interminable wars in the Middle East and promoting “affordability” at home. And it has made his promise to liberate ordinary Iranians look hollow.

Operation Epic Fury began with a joint US-Israeli surprise attack on Iran, which killed the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and many of his officials, while badly wounding his son and now successor, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Weeks of intense bombing destroyed much of Iran’s air force and navy and badly damaged its missile program. But the population did not rise up, and the leadership did not fracture.

Iran’s military restored many of its missile launchers and attacked key US allies in the region as well as US bases, which were inadequately defended. It effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz and caused global economic disruption.

Several thousand Iranians, including children, have died – the numbers are hard to verify – as have 18 American service members.

The original Operation Epic Fury has been replaced with what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last Monday announced as Operation Economic Outcast, designed to isolate Iran further and crash its badly damaged economy.