‘Situational selling’: The home owners who are selling in a downturn

Home sellers with a pressing reason to offload their properties are the key owners selling in a downturn, while those with less urgency hold fire as market watchers tip property prices have further to fall.

Downsizers and upsizers, deceased estates and those managing family changes, like divorce, have been the key sellers across winter, experts say. Property investors grappling with rising land tax, maintenance costs or legislative change from the May federal budget, are also offering their homes for sale.

But agents say owner occupiers who have already bought another property but aren’t pressed to sell are among those who are scarce during winter. Despite high interest rates, most home owners are managing loan repayments, so forced selling is unlikely to be a large factor.

Peter Kelaher, director of PK Property Buyer’s Agents, said it was the “three Ds” – divorce, downsizing and death, making up most of the listings now.

“The people that don’t have to sell are just not going to market,” said the Sydney-based buyer’s agent, noting it explained why listing levels in the harbour city had been low.

Buyer’s agent Emily Wallace, of Wallace Advocates, said even in Melbourne there was “situational selling” where “people aren’t selling unless they have to”. But some of those looking to upsize were getting their homes appraised to see if now might be a good time to trade up.

“That primary market is definitely the upsizer market,” she said. “Everyone feels like what they can get for their family home upgrade is much better than what it was at the start of the year.”

Property prices nationally have fallen , down 4 per cent in Sydney and 3.4 per cent in Melbourne in the three months to July, based on Cotality data. Some economists, including at ANZ, say Sydney prices could fall by 14.5 per cent by the end of next year and Melbourne’s by 12.8 per cent, before some recovery in 2028.

Thomas McGlynn, Ray White’s chief executive of performance and value, said while a range of sellers were getting accustomed to market shifts and were now participating, over recent weeks upsizers had been key.

“There was a really interesting period there where people had already bought and then were selling in a softer market, and we’re getting through that transition now,” he said.

“They’re recognising that ‘I may not get the price that I could have 12 months ago, but I’m also going to buy at a price that I would not have been able to buy at 12 months ago’.”

Nicholas West, a sales director at Melbourne agency Nelson Alexander, said those who were looking to upgrade, or downsize because of life circumstances, were more likely to have their homes on the market.

“ The gaps just got smaller. So there’s definitely people looking at this market as an opportunity to upgrade and change their living environment.”

Still, West said selling was “situational” including for reasons like divorce and death. For investors, the budget’s changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax concession were a consideration.