Xi Jinping to get the rock star treatment as Trump prepares a spectacle

New York/Beijing: Last Wednesday morning, on the north lawn of the White House, the United States Marine Band rehearsed for the elaborate welcome they will bestow upon Xi Jinping when he meets Donald Trump on Thursday.

It was an early sign of the full pomp and ceremony to be wheeled out for the Chinese president on what is his first state visit to the White House in more than a decade.

Most experts believe the show will outdo the substance. “This is less a summit and more a spectacle,” said Kurt Campbell, co-founder of the Asia Group consultancy and a former deputy secretary of state under Joe Biden.

His colleague Evan Medeiros, who was the China lead on the National Security Council for six years, concurs. “There’s been no serious preparation – expectations are incredibly low,” he says. “There’s not likely to be any serious deliverables, and to the extent this summit is about anything, it’s about optics.”

There are still big-ticket items on the agenda for this summit – particularly artificial intelligence , the growing flashpoint in the geostrategic rivalry between the US and China, which both countries wish to dominate.

The summit’s key outcome is expected to be an agreement by Trump and Xi to extend a fragile one-year trade truce struck in Busan , South Korea last year.

Other low-hanging trade deals are also possible, such as China buying more US soybeans, as well as an AI dialogue channel between the two sides, which was discussed in lead-up talks this week between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

More important to the two leaders is the appearance of a dependable detente – a relationship of “strategic stability”, as they agreed in Beijing earlier this year.

Trump is staring down the barrel of the midterm elections. Xi has the fifth plenum, a major meeting of the Chinese Communist Party’s central committee.

Still, when Xi touches down on US soil on Wednesday evening (Washington time), it will be with a growing confidence in Beijing about China’s status as a rival superpower and global leader.

“They think the United States is potentially dangerous – late-stage capitalism kind of thing,” says Campbell. “I think President Xi comes to Washington with a greater sense of confidence about the China mission.”

Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, says Xi’s hand has strengthened since the two leaders last met.

“If you look at you know how Trump is currently beleaguered by challenges such as inflation, the Iran conflict, and the pressure of the midterm elections, I think this time China is in an even better position,” he says.

It will be Trump and Xi’s third face-to-face meeting in 12 months, over which time China’s economy has withstood US efforts to break its export-led growth model through tariffs and other controls.