MLB Playoff Push: Pivotal AL Central series could shake up wild-card race

Incremental ups and downs. Flip-flopping standings. In, then out, then back in again. Welcome to this September's American League wild-card rollercoaster.

Some teams have all but dropped out of contention (Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners). Others are on life support ( Baltimore Orioles ). But the spread between the few teams still in the thick of it remains thin. A surge could separate one of them from the pack, but it could also stay this way until the final days of the regular season. And that's why we watch.

Since we last checked in, the Toronto Blue Jays have bounced between the third wild-card spot and two games out. But they have mostly trailed the Cleveland Guardians by one game as the two clubs have won and lost in lockstep. The Blue Jays and Guardians had identical 3-3 records last week.

Toronto climbed back within one game and stayed there with back-to-back emphatic wins over the Baltimore Orioles this past weekend. Now the Blue Jays will try to keep rolling when they host the Tigers for a three-game series starting on Monday.

Meanwhile, there's unrest in the AL Central, as the Guardians are only 0.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox for the division lead. The two teams are set to meet for a pivotal three-game set at Progressive Field. The White Sox have held onto first for over two months, last ceding it to the same Guardians with a walk-off loss on July 3, only to retake the top spot with consecutive wins over Cleveland. Now the South Siders are in danger of falling out of the playoff picture entirely.

And the Texas Rangers are lurking — one game back of the floundering Houston Astros in the AL West and two games back in the wild card — as they prepare to host the Boston Red Sox.

Bearing all that in mind, here's a look at the AL post-season race with two weeks remaining.

No. 1 and AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (90-59): Bye No. 2 and AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox (76-73): Bye No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (75-75) vs. No. 6 Cleveland Guardians (76-74) No. 4 New York Yankees (86-63) vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (82-68)

The Blue Jays and Rangers are the primary players on the outside looking in right now. Both will hope the AL Central rivals beat up on each other so they can take advantage.

The teams are coming off similar weeks, first losing series against lesser competition before rallying to win the final two of three on the weekend. Beyond those two, the Orioles, Twins, Tigers and Mariners are all between four and six games back with dwindling playoff odds.

Toronto uncharacteristically slugged its way past Baltimore, and even Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s long-dormant bat woke up to launch his first home run of the season at Rogers Centre — one of five for the Blue Jays over the two wins. Texas held off the Arizona Diamondbacks on the strength of some big swings by Corey Seager.

Both could be in playoff spots in two days. The Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker with the Guardians after winning the season series.