EU Gas Imports Could Reach 98% by 2050 Without New Field Investment

LONDON/HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, Sept. 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

LONDON/HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, 14 September 2026 – New Wood Mackenzie research modelled three EU domestic gas production scenarios to 2050 and found a cumulative gap of close to 1,000 bcm between the low and high cases, with the outcome hinging on fiscal stability, permitting reform, and exploration success in the Black Sea and East Mediterranean.

Europe’s options on gas are narrowing. Without new field investment, the EU will import over 98% of its gas by 2050. That is the central finding of a new Wood Mackenzie report, What could domestic gas do for EU energy security? The gap between doing nothing and maximising domestic production potential is roughly three years of current EU gas demand. The policy and investment decisions made in the next five years will determine which side of that gap the bloc lands on.

Europe’s import dependency runs deep. The EU imports 85% of the gas it consumes today. That share stays broadly flat through the early 2030s. However, with Norwegian supply expected to come off plateau in the 2030s, North African volumes facing domestic demand pressure and Russian pipeline gas being phased out, LNG is filling the gap. Its share of EU supply could rise from around 40% today to 63% by 2050. Of that, 77% is expected to come from the United States.

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Wood Mackenzie modelled three scenarios for EU member states with material upstream sectors.

Exploration drives most of that upside. Of the 680 bcm separating the low and high cases, exploration accounts for 70%. The Black Sea and East Mediterranean hold 70% of that yet-to-find volume. Greece alone accounts for a third, as Energean and ExxonMobil are preparing to drill the country’s first deepwater exploration well in 2027.

Cyprus sits outside these numbers. Wood Mackenzie modelled it separately as a maximum re-import potential of up to 340 bcm via Egypt, a 24% uplift on the high case. Not all of that volume is expected to reach Europe.

“The mid case is often where expectations settle, but it changes very little for the EU’s strategic position, said Lewis Lawrence, Senior Research Analyst, Europe Upstream at Wood Mackenzie. “Sustaining today’s output requires enormous investment just to stand still. The real question is whether governments are willing to create the conditions that make the high case possible, because the window is narrowing.”