Could Harper Replace Poilievre atop Conservatives?

The crisis facing the Conservative party is so acute that when Canadians recently were asked who on the right has the best chance to unseat Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, the name most offered was not Pierre Poilievre.

Turn back time, urged 16 per cent of the Nanos survey respondents. The man for the moment, they said, is Stephen Harper.

Only 15 per cent chose Poilievre, whose feckless style makeovers are increasingly improbable. Message to P.P. — flexing your newly pumped-up biceps for the camera during a barbecue in Ontario isn’t likely to win hearts and minds. The people who attended the event at the Aurora Soccer Club came for hamburgers, not a politician hamming it up.

More on that Nanos poll. The biggest chunk of respondents, 33 per cent, said no Conservative has a chance to oust Carney. The next biggest group, nearly one in five, said they had no idea who could do it. Ontario Premier Doug Ford was thought to have the best shot by 11 per cent of those surveyed, while Peter MacKay came in fourth at nine per cent.

Meanwhile, when Canadians are asked who they want running the country, Carney holds a 36-point lead over Poilievre.

None of this is lost on Poilievre’s caucus. On the heels of the Nanos findings, CTV spoke to 17 Conservative MPs and all but two agreed the pollster painted a grimly accurate picture. Some doubted Poilievre would last until the next federal election.

In short, the Conservative Party of Canada is wandering in the political wilderness with a weak leader and no strong heir apparent to inspire the troops.

Might Stephen Harper heed the opportunity offered by such a vacuum? Not likely, but not out of the question either.

After all, Poilievre continues to play to the same base that supported Stephen Harper — yet he does not manage that base with anything like Harper’s skill.

A recent case in point. Conservative infighting erupted after Poilievre’s comment about “Liberal lobbyists from out east,” a sarcastic reference to Kory Teneycke. It was a foolish shot to take at the longtime Conservative strategist who has carried so much water for the party. Teneycke had given Poilievre sound advice about how to win the 2025 election — take Donald Trump’s threat to this country seriously. His counsel was ignored, leaving it to Carney to score all the political points for standing up to a belligerent U.S. president.

Poilievre’s snarky jibe probably worked well at the Calgary Stampede. But in the rest of the country it was just another unforced error, further proof of poor judgment like the viral video where he challenged a journalist while rudely munching on an apple. True, that gotcha performance generated international attention for Poilievre, catching the approving eyes of Fox News and Elon Musk. But in Canada it raised questions about character. Poilievre just can’t seem to drop his yippy-yappy attack dog persona — even against party veterans like Teneycke.

The act is wearing thin. Campaigning after Justin Trudeau quit, Poilievre refused to pivot from outdated research and sloganeering. The populist trucker convoy message he rode to the Conservative leadership and beyond was no longer working.