Canada took the trade war to Trump’s backyard. Americans didn’t care

Mounted above the Texas manufacturer’s desk, a Canada goose, flanked by a mallard and four deer heads, fixes a glassy stare on the room. An open bottle of rye whiskey sits on the floor below.

It is a fitting backdrop for a conversation about another Canadian presence hanging over Thrailkill’s business: the escalating trade war between Washington and Ottawa.

At All Metals Fabricating, the third-generation family company he runs near Dallas, the price Thrailkill pays for aluminum has risen 84 per cent since tariffs were first introduced by the US in March 2025, he says. In 2026 alone, it’s up 40 per cent, he says.

But for Thrailkill, the financial pain has not become a political liability – at least not enough to change his vote.

“Certainly, the inability to get a deal done with Canada affects my … approval rating of Trump,” he says. “But it’s not going to change my vote because of all the other things that align with pro-small business, less taxes.”

In August, after Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods, Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Prime Minister Mark Carney to impose retaliatory tariffs on products from eight politically pivotal states, including Texas.

“Products from these states should face the full force of Canada’s response,” Ford wrote in a letter dated Aug. 17, days before trade talks between the two countries collapsed . The following day, Carney announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs.

But Canada’s retaliation is only one part of a much broader tariff fight. With the midterms approaching, the bigger question is whether tariffs are becoming a political headwind for Trump – and whether Canada’s economic pressure will translate into votes against him at the ballot box on Nov. 3.

With control of Congress being fought over in a narrow field of competitive races, even small shifts in voter sentiment could matter: Cook Political Report currently rates seven Senate contests and 21 House races as toss-ups, including Senate races in Texas.

Last week, Republicans gathered there for the party’s first midterm convention, hoping to rally supporters ahead of November. Yet inside the arena, a trade war that has overwhelmed political debate in Canada barely registered.

Several Texans and Republican voters interviewed by Global inside the American Airlines Center were only vaguely familiar with the dispute with Canada. Those who were aware of it often repeated Trump’s broader argument that other countries had taken advantage of the US, even as they acknowledged frustration with tariffs, prices, or Trump himself. When asked about tariffs, some answered they believed America had been too generous to the rest of the world.

Canada, in other words, was less a major topic of conversation than a bit character in a much larger political grievance.

Asked whether going into the midterms amid a trade war and a conflict with Iran was wise, he replied: “No, that’s probably not the best recipe.” He nevertheless argued that Republican voters would reward Trump for being willing to fight on their behalf.

Texas might seem like fertile ground for that political risk to play out.