Incumbents have almost unbeatable head start in GTA elections

A seat on a municipal council is a stronger predictor of success for immigrant candidates than how much money they raise for their election campaigns, according to an analysis by New Canadian Media and interviews with academics who study electoral dynamics.

With Ontario voters heading to the polls on Oct.

26, NCM reviewed the audited 2022 financial statements of 14 candidates in Toronto, Mississauga and Brampton who have publicly identified as immigrants, the children of immigrants or members of a visible minority.

Thirteen won.

NCM counted only candidates who identified themselves as immigrants in an interview, on social media or in an official biography.

Candidates who described themselves as immigrants or the children of immigrants, raised as much and often far more than their rivals in three of the most immigrant-heavy cities in Canada during the 2022 municipal elections.

The ones who were already in office had an advantage over new candidates.

More than half of Mississauga's residents (53.2 per cent) and Brampton's (52.9 per cent) were born outside Canada, according to the 2021 census.

In Toronto, that number was 46.6 per cent.

Money and office travelled together Six of the 14 candidates were sitting members, and all six won.

Bonnie Crombie raised $505,675 for the Mississauga mayoral race, more than 20 times her nearest rival.

In Mississauga's Ward 7, Dipika Damerla raised $40,870, about three times the amount raised by the next closest candidate. [caption id="attachment_43318" align="alignleft" width="375"] Dipika Damerla.

Photo: The Pointer[/caption] Toronto's Josh Matlow raised $90,668 compared to the $3,425 raised by his closest challenger.

In Brampton, Martin Medeiros raised $62,812 against $5,750; and Pat Fortini and Rowena Santos also raised more campaign funds by wide margins. (Matlow is Canadian-born, and his Jewish identity is the only self-identification in our sample.) The pattern held beyond our sample.