Trump upended last year’s federal election. Will he do the same to the Quebec campaign?

Quebec election campaign officially begins Thursday. What’s different this time?

In last year’s federal election, Donald Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state produced an unusual plot twist in Quebec: talk of defending the province's interests suddenly took a back seat to defending Canada against its neighbour.

On election day, Mark Carney’s Liberals capitalized on that sentiment, scoring the party’s best result in the province in decades and pushing the Bloc Québécois to the sidelines.

Debates over Quebec identity, secularism and language were drowned out by the noise from Washington.

Now, as the provincial election kicks off today, could the U.S. president play that outsized role once again?

The newly imposed tariffs dominated discussions in the days leading up to the campaign launch, forcing every party leader to prove they can shield the province from the economic fallout.

“It seems that handling the economy in uncertain times could be the ballot box question,” Philippe Fournier, a polling analyst and founder of the website Qc125, told CBC News.

Before the trade war escalated, polls suggested health care, housing and the cost of living were top-of-mind issues for voters.

In that regard, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faced an uphill battle after two terms in power and a discontent electorate, said André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.

The CAQ has the most to gain if economic stability ends up being a priority for voters, he said.

“Almost overnight, the key question has gone from “how do you judge the last eight years of government?’ to, ‘who do you want to handle this crisis?’” Lecours said.

According to a recent report by Oxford Economics, Quebec is among the provinces that will take the biggest hit from the new tariffs, given its heavy reliance on automotive, metals and manufacturing exports.

Trump says idea of him interfering with Canadians speaking French is a 'stupid thing'

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, whose Parti Québécois (PQ) is leading in opinion polls, attempted to defuse the issue last week by confirming he wouldn’t call a referendum until the end of Trump's second term in the White House.