A bellwether byelection? Candidates hit the ground running in the race for Calgary-Shaw

Calgary-Shaw voters will head to the polls Sept. 14 to elect a new MLA for the south suburban Calgary riding, following former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz’s decision to step away from provincial politics earlier this year.

While it won’t affect the balance of power in the Alberta legislature, the upcoming vote is seen by some political observers to be a bellwether for next year’s provincial election, and a litmus test for public support of the governing United Conservative Party’s track record ahead of October’s referendum.

Although byelections traditionally see a low voter turnout and public interest, Mount Royal University political science professor Lori Williams feels the Calgary-Shaw byelection will attract more attention than others have.

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“This actually could be a really interesting race, even though a lot else is going on in Alberta politics at the same time,” she said.

With the Calgary-Shaw vote happening just five weeks before a province-wide referendum that includes a question on Alberta’s potential secession from Canada, Williams said the topic of separation will likely simmer in the background.

She noted the UCP candidate has been endorsed by a prominent Alberta separatist — an association the NDP has already latched onto in its early campaign rhetoric.

“It could be that separation becomes an issue in this particular riding,” Williams said.

The fact the former MLA had a high profile — Schulz was a two-term cabinet minister who also challenged for the UCP leadership in 2022 — will also heighten public interest in the byelection to replace her, Williams said.

Calgary-Shaw includes communities on Calgary’s southern tip. Its communities straddle both sides of MacLeod Trail, including Shawnessy, Somerset and Silverado on the west and Legacy and Walden on the east and has about 39,000 eligible voters.

The governing UCP has held the riding since 2019, though an NDP MLA served the riding when the party was in government from 2015 to 2019.

“Normally, suburban ridings tend to lean a little bit more conservative, but this one was NDP in 2015,’ Williams said. “There’s sort of a moderate, centrist character to voters in that riding, so it’ll be very interesting to see if someone who seems to be associated with far-right supporters and issues suffers as a result of that.”

As of Wednesday, four candidates have said they intend to run in Calgary-Shaw. Nominations for the byelection close on Aug. 27.