Super El Nino event formed in September, Chinese climate center says

A super El Nino event officially formed in September 2026, according to monitoring data from China's National Climate Center.

Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster at the center, said that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific entered an El Nino state in May this year, with sea surface temperatures in the key monitoring region rising rapidly and continuously from May to September.

The three-month running mean of the sea surface temperature (SST) index in the monitoring region has remained above 0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months.

The index exceeded 2.5 degrees Celsius for the July-September period, meeting the threshold for a super El Nino event.

The event is classified as an eastern Pacific-type El Nino, in which the warmest sea surface temperatures are concentrated in the equatorial eastern Pacific.

Monitoring data showed that sea surface temperatures across most of the equatorial Pacific were above average in September, with temperatures in the warm pool of the eastern Pacific exceeding the climatological average by more than 3 degrees Celsius.

The SST index for the monitoring region reached 2.94 degrees Celsius in September, up 0.35 degrees Celsius from August.

The average index for the July-September period stood at 2.54 degrees Celsius.

Based on a combination of domestic and international dynamical climate models and statistical forecasting methods, the center expects sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific to continue rising over the next three months, reaching a peak in late autumn or early winter, Zhao said.

The event is expected to become the strongest El Nino on record since systematic monitoring began, he added.

Read more: Super El Nino event expected to become strongest on record, around November