Japan's new intelligence bureau: The costly price of a security pivot

Editor's note: Jiang Wenran is a two-time Japan Foundation Fellow, founding director of the China Institute, Mactaggart Research chair emeritus at the University of Alberta, and an advisor at the Institute of Peace & Diplomacy.

The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Today, August 15, marks the 81st anniversary of Japan's unconditional surrender in 1945.

Just 15 days earlier, on July 31, Tokyo inaugurated its new National Intelligence Bureau (NIB) — a date marking the anniversary of the Kwantung Army's 1937 mobilization, a symbolism noted by regional observers.

For a nation that constitutionally renounced war eight decades ago, the NIB is a new institutional keystone of a remilitarization project that prioritizes "guns over butter," locking in massive defence spending at the direct expense of a struggling populace.

The legislative process was staggering.

The ruling coalition, lacking an Upper House majority, bulldozed the bill through the House of Representatives in just 41 days.

Despite protests that have grown to tens of thousands — with demonstrators warning that the bureau would become a tool to "monitor society and suppress citizens," and prominent lawyer Noriaki Fukuyama denouncing the bill as "an evil law that has completely failed to learn from the lessons of World War II" — the short legislative blitz has sidelined debate while dismantling postwar pacifist guardrails.

The NIB provides the intelligence backbone that underpins Japan's record 9.04 trillion yen ($58 billion) defence budget, which has already met the 2% of GDP target set out in the 2022 National Security Strategy two years ahead of schedule.

Yet, Tokyo is now drifting toward the NATO-aligned 3.5% benchmark that Washington has pressed its allies to adopt — a target referenced, though not yet formally adopted, in Japanese Cabinet's July economic and fiscal policy guidelines.

In contrast, China's 2026 defence budget of 1.91 trillion yuan ($275 billion) accounts for about 1.3% of GDP, below the global average of 2.5%.

The per capita disparity is starker: Japan's defence spending, 80,000 yen per head, is more than three times that of China, reflecting a density of militarization that places Japan's fiscal health under severe strain: Government debt has topped 1,300 trillion yen, with the IMF projecting a debt-to-GDP ratio of well over 200% for 2026 — the highest among major economies.

Debt-servicing costs have crossed 30 trillion yen for the first time, consuming over a quarter of all public expenditure.

To finance the gap, the Takaichi administration is imposing a painful triple squeeze: Issuing massive government bonds, hiking taxes, and slashing non-priority social spending.