Chinese coastguard has 0.3% chance of using weapons in disputed waters, war game suggests

Researchers create AI framework to read unknown vessels’ intentions by identifying them as ‘hostile’ or ‘harmless’ to assess risks at sea

Their findings, published this month, revealed a surprising number: under the existing rule‑based command system, the simulated Chinese coastguard would resort to lethal weapons only 0.3 per cent of the time.

It is a remarkably low risk – but for Beijing, even that chance is too high when the encounters involve sensitive, disputed waters.

The AI does not simply stamp a target as “hostile” or “harmless”; it continuously calculates the odds of multiple possible intentions – from routine fishing to coordinated harassment – and adjusts its response accordingly.