How southwest monsoon deficit affected parts of India

As the southwest monsoon retreats and the northeast monsoon sets in over southern India, the country is left to reckon with an uneven season of rainfall. After a season that delivered 12.6% less rainfall than normal, the effects have varied across the country, shaped by how much rain each region received and how dependent it is on the seasonal showers.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the onset of northeast monsoon over the south peninsular region by mid-October. Heavy rainfall is expected in parts of South India between October 14 and October 19. As the northeast monsoon sets in, here is a look at the impact of the withdrawing southwest monsoon on various regions of the country.

The southwest monsoon, India's primary source of rainfall, ended the season with 759.4 mm rain, 12.6% below normal. Typically spanning June to September, the southwest monsoon accounts for the largest share of India's annual rainfall, making it crucial for agriculture, irrigation, drinking water supply and hydropower generation.

The IMD calculates normal rainfall using 50 years of data. The current annual normal was declared in 2022 based on data from 1971 to 2020. The normal for southwest monsoon rainfall across the country is set at 868.6 mm, which amounts to 75% of the annual rainfall.

Among districts, Dadra and Nagar Haveli recorded the highest rainfall in the country, receiving 3182.5 mm rainfall, 38% above normal. Raigad district in Maharashtra recorded the second-highest rainfall at 2,940 mm, followed by Valsad district in Gujarat with 2,875.1 mm.

Among districts that received excess rainfall, Bageshwar in Uttarakhand received 2083.8 mm rainfall, 163% above normal.

Ramanagara district in Karnataka recorded the highest deficit, receiving just 34.2 mm rainfall, a 92% departure from the district’s normal. Anjaw district in Arunachal Pradesh received 175.1 mm rainfall, 89% below normal.

Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Goa reported high number of districts with deficient rainfall

Water-intensive crops such as paddy have been affected in several regions, raising concerns about a below-average harvest. In May, ahead of sowing season, the IMD had forecast a below average rainfall. The data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare show that the area under rice cultivation during the kharif season fell by 3.46%. The reduced acreage and concerns over production have coincided with rising rice price in several parts of the country, especially in South India.

Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of its talukas as the trigger of 21 days without substantial rain was met in these areas, according to the state Agriculture Commissioner.

In Yavatmal district in the Vidarbha region, a farmer wrote to local government officials seeking assistance for farmers to help prevent suicides. The water scarcity was also felt during the Ganapati festival, when the lack of sufficiently deep waterbodies hindered idol immersion ceremonies.

Beyond crop losses, the shortage has disrupted cultural and religious practices.