Invested near 2024 market peak? New study reveals lessons from past crashes on SIPs, lump sums and volatility
Investors who started SIPs or invested a lump sum between July and September 2024, when markets were near their highs, have now spent nearly 2 years dealing with flat-to-negative returns, according to the latest study by WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund .
The Sensex has gone nearly 700 days without making a new record high, its longest such stretch since 2012. Also, 38% of trading days in 2026 have seen negative 2-year rolling returns, the highest in over a decade.
But history suggests that a difficult entry point does not necessarily mean a poor long-term outcome. “History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes,” the study notes.
The WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund study highlighted three periods of sharp falls or prolonged weakness.
The Nifty 50 fell around 52% in 2008, while a lump sum invested at the peak remained in the red for 5–6 years.
The study notes that many investors “questioned every SIP instalment” and stopped investing near the market bottom.
However, those who continued their SIPs “broke even within 18 months” of the crash and were earning an XIRR of 30% shortly thereafter.
A monthly SIP between January 2008 and December 2009 delivered a 15% XIRR.
The Nifty 50 fell around 25% in 2011 amid European debt concerns and domestic policy paralysis.
After nearly two years of choppy markets following the 2009–10 rally, the index rebounded 28% in 2012 as risk appetite and FII flows returned.
A monthly SIP between January 2011 and December 2012 delivered a 10.2% XIRR, according to the study.
Mid- and small-cap stocks remained “sideways-to-down” for nearly two years after the 2017 rally, before COVID triggered another sharp fall in March 2020.
Investors who entered at elevated valuations faced “almost 3 years of flat-to-negative returns,” according to the study. But markets more than doubled from the March 2020 lows within 12 months.
A monthly SIP between January 2018 and December 2020 delivered a 16.3% XIRR.
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