WTC final equation after Mackay Test: How Bangladesh’s defeat has opened the door for India

After suffering a shock defeat in Darwin last week, Australia bounced back to beat Bangladesh in Mackay on Sunday. The second and final Test lasted just two days, with Australia securing an innings-and-51-run victory. It was also the third time in their last seven Tests in Australia that a match had finished inside two days, following the rapid-fire Tests in Perth and Melbourne during the Ashes.

Mitchell Starc was the chief architect of the victory. He picked up six wickets for just 12 runs in the first innings on Saturday, including a wicket with the first ball of the match, on his way to a 22-ball five-wicket haul as Bangladesh were bowled out for 64. He claimed four more wickets in the second innings as Bangladesh collapsed for 95, allowing Australia to seal a series-levelling win on the second evening.

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The 2023 World Test Championship winners had made a near-perfect start to the current cycle with a series sweep against the West Indies and a dominant Ashes retention at home. Their shock defeat in Darwin, however, had cut their lead at the top of the standings. The emphatic recovery in Mackay has put Australia, who now have eight wins from 10 matches and a points percentage (PCT) of 80%, firmly back on course for a third consecutive WTC final appearance.

Up next is a challenging three-Test tour of South Africa, the defending champions, in October. Australia will then return home to host New Zealand before travelling to India at the start of 2027 for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

Bangladesh, meanwhile, remain fourth in the WTC standings despite the defeat, with a PCT of 55.56%. They had earlier secured a home series win against Pakistan before producing their historic victory in Darwin, leaving them in a strong position despite the setback in Mackay. Their next assignments are home series against the West Indies and England.

India, too, remain unchanged after Australia’s victory, but that could change if they beat Sri Lanka and complete a series sweep in Colombo. Shubman Gill’s side currently have 64 points from 10 matches in the cycle, with a PCT of 53.33%.

A win in the second Test will take India’s PCT to 57.57%, moving them up to fourth in the standings. In that sense, Australia’s victory does not immediately alter India’s position, but the result keeps the race tightly packed and leaves India with a clear opportunity to improve their standing in Colombo.

The two-time WTC finalists will then face a crucial tour of New Zealand in November. India have not won a Test in New Zealand since 2009. They will return home thereafter for a five-Test Border-Gavaskar Trophy series against Australia.

India’s recent Test record makes the task even tougher. They were swept by New Zealand at home before suffering a 0-2 defeat against South Africa, leaving them with little room for further slip-ups if they are to return to the WTC final.

Aratrick Mondal is a senior sports journalist based in New Delhi.