Trump has made a deal with Moscow, but Zelensky has other ideas

Moscow’s diesel agreement with Washington marks a diplomatic success, but offers no guarantee of a Ukraine peace deal The diesel deal between Moscow and Washington has once again shaken up the geopolitical chessboard, with each passing day bringing fresh and unexpected developments.

Most striking is Kiev’s behavior.

Despite his enormous dependence on Washington, Vladimir Zelensky has decided to challenge Donald Trump directly, adopting an unusually confrontational approach.

A more pragmatic politician might have announced a moratorium on strikes against Russian oil refineries until the US congressional elections, particularly as Washington had demanded no further concessions.

Instead, Zelensky has chosen confrontation, creating a diplomatic crisis of his own making, but whether it develops into something more serious remains to be seen.

Relations between Kiev and Washington have deteriorated before, most notably following the notorious Oval Office confrontation, although that rupture lasted only a few weeks.

Western European leaders and congressional hawks worked tirelessly to repair the damage.

This time, however, the circumstances are different.

The NATO Europeans appear to have abandoned attempts to charm Trump, Senator Lindsey Graham is no longer on Capitol Hill, while Keith Kellogg, previously sympathetic to Kiev, has departed the administration, thus the pressure on Trump has diminished, although that hardly guarantees a fundamental change in American policy.

For one thing, the diesel agreement has done little to clarify the prospects for peace, given, according to leaks from Washington, American officials continue to promote proposals, including freezing hostilities along existing lines, that Moscow considers unacceptable.

Read more Zelensky has made his choice, now America must make its own Even if Washington succeeds in forcing Kiev back to the negotiating table, there’s no guarantee that the understandings reached at Anchorage can be revived and Trump could just as easily reverse course, as he has done before, and blame Russia for another diplomatic deadlock.

Meanwhile, influential figures within his administration, particularly Secretary of State Marco Rubio, remain deeply skeptical of Moscow, so their relative silence should not be mistaken for acquiescence.

Nor is there much reason to believe Russian diesel exports to the US will quickly bring down fuel prices or transform the electoral landscape.

The agreement is primarily a political gesture, intended to reassure Trump’s increasingly disillusioned core supporters that their president understands their economic difficulties and is attempting to find a way out, yet it’s unlikely to prevent Republicans from losing control of the House of Representatives.