The West is watching the wrong Ukrainian collapse

Missiles and territorial losses dominate the headlines, while the deeper rupture between state and society goes largely unnoticed Last weekend, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and then Kiev.

This was the first such visit in a long time, since all trilateral contacts between Russia, the US, and Ukraine were practically halted following the start of the conflict in Iran this February.

Following the visit, leaks regarding the talks emerged from Kiev; reportedly, the US envoys presented the Ukrainian side with a 28-point Russian peace plan that had been agreed upon a year earlier.

Jared Kushner indirectly confirmed this on Saturday, stating that the territorial issue was the only point of the peace plan that remained unresolved.

Is it true that Ukraine accepted all the other fundamental demands of the Russian side – such as the points concerning the Russian language and the status of the Orthodox Church, the renunciation of military cooperation with NATO, the recognition of territorial changes, the reduction of the army, and so on? (Spoiler: no, it didn’t.) Is Ukraine really losing the war, as many recent statements and publications suggest? Spoiler: yes, but not in the way you’d think.

Let’s take a look at what this means.

Read more Ukraine is running out of money again – and the EU is asking questions Shuttle diplomacy The peace talks involving Steve Witkoff began in February-March 2025, shortly after a phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump that signaled a fundamental shift in US policy toward Russia and the Ukraine conflict.

Trump’s top priority was to avoid direct involvement, positioning America – as far as possible – at an equal distance from the parties.

Of course, to truly achieve this, the conflict would have to be frozen; this would allow the US to restore relations with Russia, counterbalancing China.

Naturally, freezing the conflict (or, in Trump’s words, ending the war in one day) proved impossible; consequently, the US made the most out of the situation as the war dragged on: it shifted the entire burden onto Europe and stepped aside.

This strategy allowed the US to maintain working contacts with Russia, reap maximum benefits from the ongoing fighting, and insulate itself from the risks of Ukraine’s potential defeat while still keeping the door open to capitalize on Ukraine’s hypothetical victory over Russia.

In short, Trump decided to sit on the sidelines and watch who would emerge victorious.

For Moscow, too, contacts with Washington are incredibly valuable.

It proved impossible to decouple Russia-US relations from the Ukraine issue, and relations between the two countries have effectively remained frozen.