Would Erdogan actually go to war with Israel?

A new regional alliance has strengthened Türkiye’s hand – and made an accidental conflict dangerously plausible In a recent interview, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in response to a question about the aggressive attitude of Israeli politicians towards Türkiye, stated that Ankara will not shy away from war if attacked.

While these words cannot be considered a direct declaration of war against Israel, they certainly served as a stern warning.

The Turkish leader clearly stated Ankara’s position: Türkiye does not seek to enter into an armed conflict, but any aggression against it will be met with a decisive response.

Erdogan, however, did not express any intention to strike first; he merely indicated that the diplomatic means of deterring Israel are gradually being exhausted.

Erdogan’s words are directly related to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed on August 7 by Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.

Its core principle is reminiscent of Article 5 of NATO, which states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.

The defense pact provides for military coordination, joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and the development of defense-industrial cooperation.

Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are creating their own mechanism of deterrence.

And while it is not yet a full-fledged ‘Islamic NATO’, it is much more than a mere declaration of friendship.

US President Donald Trump’s reaction to this pact was notable.

He welcomed the agreement, calling it a “big step” that demonstrates the unity of Middle Eastern countries.

At first glance, it sounds contradictory that Washington is approving a mechanism that reduces the dependence of regional allies on American security guarantees.

However, the Mecca Agreement is not a military alliance against the US, but rather an agreement against the American monopoly on determining regional security rules.

There is a difference between these two concepts, although the distinction may narrow over time.