Crucial regional votes in Germany: What’s at stake for Merz?

The chancellor’s CDU is projected to suffer a drubbing in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and trail the Left Party in Berlin German regional elections could have major implications for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s political future, with exit polls projecting a crushing defeat for his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and a weak showing in Berlin.

The CDU was languishing at just 20% nationwide as of last weekend, according to an INSA ‘Sunday Trend’ poll.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) remained the country’s most popular party, with 29% support.

This comes despite pressure on the AfD from Germany’s domestic security agency over its alleged ‘extremist’ tendencies and efforts by mainstream parties to keep it out of government.

Read more Half of Germans expect Merz to be out by year-end – poll Merz himself has also faced widespread dissatisfaction, with 78% of respondents surveyed by INSA unhappy with his performance as chancellor.

The CDU therefore entered Sunday’s vote under considerable pressure, compounded by its electoral drubbing in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month.

First exit polls The Left Party ( Die Linke ) is projected to top the vote in Berlin with 25.3% of the vote, according to exit polls.

Its lead candidate, Elif Eralp, a first generation German of Turkish parentage, told cheering supporters on Sunday evening that “from today on, we will change Berlin together.” Merz’s CDU is projected to take 19.1%, while the AfD is in third place with 16.2%, according to DW.

If the projections hold, the Left Party will be in pole position to lead Berlin’s next government – potentially for the first time since German reunification in 1990.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD is projected to finish first with 37.9% of the vote in an extraordinary turnaround.

Party co-leader Tino Chrupalla said the result showed that the AfD “clearly have the mandate to govern here.” Read more Merz’s party hits new low in regional election ‘disaster’ Merz’s CDU, meanwhile, is projected to suffer another major setback, securing just 5% and barely clearing the threshold for entering the state parliament.

The result would be the party’s worst in any German state election since 1949.

Merz has described his party's showing as a “disaster.” Who is voting for what? In Berlin, which is both a city and one of Germany’s 16 federal states, approximately 2.5 million people are eligible to elect the House of Representatives, the local legislature.

Voters have cast two votes: one for a direct candidate in one of 78 constituencies and the other for a party’s state or district list.