Chinese RAM surge through 2028 isn't likely to help the average consumer

Chinese chipmaker CXMT is predicted to be ramping up RAM production It could double memory production by 2028, we're told This extra RAM is likely to service the domestic market, though, and meanwhile, Dell's CEO is warning that the memory crisis is likely to persist to 2030 A major Chinese chipmaker has plans to expand its DRAM production in a big way over the next couple of years, but this won't be a silver bullet for wider RAM problems, and Dell's CEO is warning on the memory crisis getting worse, too.

First, the news on the Chinese company CXMT, which was flagged by P Equity Research on X (via Wccftech ) in a post that highlights forecasts from Counterpoint Research and TrendForce.

According to those research firms, CXMT is set to expand its DRAM wafer production from around 320,000 units this year, to 420,000 units over the course of 2027.

That translates to a growth of just over 30% in a year, and the further prediction is that in 2028, production capacity might hit 500,000 to 600,000, so given that most optimistic scenario, it would nearly double compared to this year.

There's some excitement on that point because while others are focusing on HBM, or high-end RAM for the AI industry, this is an expansion of traditional RAM production, meaning the kind that'll go in a PC as opposed to a data center server.

However, before we start mulling the prospect of RAM supply being shored up to some extent, there are obvious caveats to consider here – including a new warning from Dell's CEO as mentioned at the outset.

Analysis: domestic relief – and more pessimism from Dell (Image credit: Stockcrafter / Getty) The problem with CXMT is that even if the predicted near-doubling of RAM production does happen in 2028 as these analysts are theorizing, where is this memory going to end up? Most likely it'll serve the domestic market in China, and the chances of it making any kind of a meaningful difference to the balance of RAM supply outside of Asia are minimal.

China's own memory requirements are substantial, and as we've discussed before , the government is likely to exert its influence in terms of keeping local demand fulfilled rather than selling abroad.

And yes, while it's true that CXMT's RAM is being used by some manufacturers in the west already, it's on a very limited basis currently – and it isn't like it's some kind of a bargain, either.

Indeed, the cost of CXMT's memory is reportedly much the same as what you'll pay if buying from Samsung.

Meanwhile, as Wccftech also picked up , the CEO of Dell, Michael Dell, added his voice to the growing consensus that the memory shortage will get worse next year, and that these RAM woes are going to be prolonged for quite some time.