Would Labour win an early election? Here’s what the polls say

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A sustained polling boost for the new government is fuelling speculation that Andy Burnham is considering an early general election , as a fall in popularity for Reform UK continues.

The governing party has remained consistently above Nigel Farage ’s party for approval since Mr Burnham’s coronation in July, when Labour overtook Reform for the first time since March 2025.

A new poll from YouGov now finds Reform would come third in a general election, below the Conservatives. Mr Farage’s party would win 123 seats, the pollster finds, compared to 130 for the Tories.

However, the polling also puts Labour on 241 seats – a loss of 162 from the current total. This would make for a hung parliament, with Labour likely having to look to the Greens and Liberal Democrats for a coalition deal.

Andy Burnham’s leadership has also affected the ratings of Zack Polanski ’s Green Party , which has seen a drop in support over the past few months.

The government has said it does not intend to call an early election. However, Labour sources recently told The Independent that the by-election to replace Sir Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras is being seen as a test run for the possibility.

Sir Keir announced that he would be leaving parliament earlier this month, after resigning as prime minister and Labour leader to make way for Mr Burnham. Mr Polanski has confirmed he will stand as the Green candidate for the seat next month.

Opposition parties also appear to be preparing for the country to go to the polls early, with Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey revealing a manifesto working group has already been formed.

Meanwhile, Reform sources have also suggested Mr Burnham could be convinced to call an early election depending on the outcome of the London by-election.

They told The i that if Labour’s candidate beats Mr Polanski “convincingly”, he could be dismissed as a “dud” and convince Labour that the progressive vote was uniting behind them once again.

A Tory source also told the paper: “[Burnham’s] whole thing is to consolidate the left. If he continues to constrict the Green vote then it will tempt him into an early election whilst the right remains split.”

Under Sir Keir’s leadership, polling showed Labour began to lose support from left-leaning voters over issues such as Gaza and welfare spending.

This coincided with a boost to the Greens, who recorded a high of around 14 per cent approval in April this year, based on an average of top pollsters, compared to a Labour low of 19 per cent in the same month.