No Europe, more points? Why history is on Chelsea and Spurs' side

Chelsea and Spurs had poor league seasons in the last campaign but both are expected to vastly improve this time around; will it be down to being without European football? Sky Sports has looked back to see how much of a bounce can be expected

Chelsea and Tottenham begin the season with new optimism, refreshed squads and without the potential distraction of midweek European football.

For Chelsea, it's a new manager, the British transfer record broken and a change of course with experienced players added to the youngest squad in the Premier League last season.

For Spurs, there's a new way of playing without the spectre of relegation, while Roberto De Zerbi has also benefited from a loosening of the budget.

Neither side will compete in Europe because of poor domestic campaigns last season and that means both may expect an uplift in their points tally and placing in the Premier League table.

Firstly, let's set the parameters. Sky Sports has gone back to 2008 to look at when 'big six' clubs have been playing in a UEFA competition but did not the following season.

We have then compared league points tally and finishing position across those consecutive campaigns. It's a small sample but it may provide historical context ahead of the new season.

Perhaps the most significant example of this came for Chelsea. A turbulent season in 2015/16 saw Jose Mourinho depart to be replaced by Guus Hiddink until the end of the season.

They finished 10th in the Premier League table and failed to qualify for any European competition.

The following year, Antonio Conte added 43 points to the previous campaign tally as Chelsea won the league with 93 points, seven ahead of Spurs.

The similarities are clear. A turbulent season in 2025/26 saw Enzo Maresca depart to be replaced by Liam Rosenior before Calum McFarlane took over for the end of the season. They finished 10th.

So how many extra Premier League points can be expected when not playing in Europe?

Since 2008/09, a 'big six' side has gone from a season in Europe to a season without Europe 11 times and on 10 occasions the team has delivered an improved points tally and league placing, a 91 per cent success rate.

Liverpool were the only side that failed to improve their points tally and league position, dropping from 58 points and sixth to 52 points and eighth in 2011/12.