Gartner predicts 55 percent of enterprise VMware users will be investigating an exit by 2029

Analyst firm Gartner believes over half of VMware users will start evaluating alternative hybrid cloud platforms yet still rates the Broadcom business unit a leader in two major markets.

Gartner predicted increased interest in VMware exits in its Magic Quadrant for Distributed Hybrid Infrastructure (DHI) – aka hybrid clouds – which opens with a “Strategic Planning Assumption” that “By 2029, 55 percent of enterprises will initiate proofs of concept for alternative distributed hybrid infrastructure products to replace their VMware-based deployments and embrace hybrid cloud infrastructure delivery, up from 25 percent in 2026.” Gartner’s mention of 2029 feels noteworthy, because that year will be six years after Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware.

As The Register has previously written, plenty of VMware users acquired fresh three-year subscriptions in the months before the deal closed.

Migrating from VMware to a rival platform is a risky and complex project, and we often hear of customers deciding it is safer to stick with Broadcom for longer while they hatch plans.

If orgs in that position refresh for another three-year sub during 2026, 2029 would be a natural jumping off point.

Numerous virtualization contenders are trying to lure Virtzilla’s customers, yet progress is slow.

Nutanix CEO Rajiv Ramaswami has often said it will be several years before some are ready to move.

While Gartner predicts a majority of VMware customers will contemplate a move, the Broadcom business unit will keep most of its customers for at least another three years – and recently turned its attention to refreshing its low-end vSphere Standard product, a move that will give it a chance to retain more current users.

The DHI Magic Quadrant rates VMware as a leader in the field, alongside AWS, Nutanix, Microsoft and Oracle.

Gartner rates VMware’s core virtualization technology, formal sovereign cloud ecosystem, and AI-native infrastructure as strengths.

The first VMware weakness Gartner mentions makes for sobering reading: “VMware has experienced an increased level of negative sentiment from Gartner customers, particularly regarding communication, commercial business practices and delays in support, compared to other market leaders.” The firm had similar things to say in another Magic Quadrant – this one dedicated to Server Virtualization Platforms.

On this MQ, Gartner rated VMware as a leader in the field and praised its technology and AI integration.

But the firm also felt it necessary to report negative customer sentiments.

“Gartner clients have reported that the transition to per-core subscriptions has resulted in significant cost increases.