Who will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Believe the bookies and it’s a done deal, Labour will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election .

Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali is 1-10 favourite, followed by Green Party leader Zack Polanski on 6-1, then George Galloway , between 66-1 and 100-1 but who could significantly influence the election’s outcome.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are into cricket score odds.

Sagal Abdi-Wali, Labour's candidate for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election Getty But politics, just like so many sports, is about momentum and all could change in the run-up to polling day for the north London by-election on October 8.

A look at the numbers shows why Mr Polanski has taken the big gamble of throwing his hat into the ring in Holborn and St Pancras.

At the 2024 general election, Labour won the seat with a majority, of 11,572.

Sir Keir Starmer gained 18,884 votes, with the Greens far behind in third place with 4,030.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski poses for a photo as he campaigns in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election AFP/Getty However, independent candidate Andrew Feinstein got 7,312 votes just over two years ago.

He has urged his previous backers to support Mr Polanski which, if the vast majority do, could boost his chances of a strong challenge to Labour and possibly even of victory.

The numbers may be starting to stack up more favourably for the Green leader.

Polls also suggest that Labour may have lost around a quarter of its vote in London during Sir Keir’s premiership, highlighted by the Green Party’s success at the May local elections in the capital.

The numbers may now look increasingly enticing to Mr Polanski who previously listed a string of London seats which he would contest, including Holborn and St Pancras, if there was a vacancy.

Labour has risen in the polls since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister in the summer, with suggestions that peak-Polanski may have passed as some voters return from the Green Party to the Labour fold.

George Galloway AFP/Getty Mr Polanski’s hopes of a historic victory have also almost certainly been dented by George Galloway’s decision to enter the contest which could split the Left-leaning, anti-Labour vote.