Senior Nato commander warns Putin is becoming more cavalier and open to risk as Ukraine war drags on

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Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming “increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting,” as his war in Ukraine drags on and as he seeks to divide Western allies, Nato’s deputy commander in Europe said Tuesday.

Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer spoke at a security conference in Estonia amid warnings from some European leaders that Moscow is planning to test Nato’s collective defense pact with bolder attacks that have already included sabotage and espionage.

Stringer warned that Nato members need to be aware of the “febrile environment” and careful in their response because Putin would like to provoke the alliance into an “overreaction.”

Polish PM Donald Tusk said last week that Russia might target Nato nations with deliberate drone or missile strikes while claiming they were accidental. French president Emmanuel Macron agreed and has asked his government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure against potential drone attacks and cyberattacks.

Other European officials say the threat from Russia is serious but have called for calm.

A British defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters, said the UK assessment is that Putin is not seeking direct confrontation with Nato. Officials in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which border Russia, have also been more cautious about the prospect of a serious escalation after years of calling on Western nations to adopt a more hawkish approach to Moscow.

European countries have already faced multiple incursions of Russian drones — and several missiles — as well as a campaign of covert Russian disruption which began after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

An AP interactive map tracking that campaign shows the escalation, from 59 incidents in March 2025 to more than 210 incidents ranging from vandalism, propaganda and influence operations to arson, sabotage and cyberattacks.

In August, German officials accused Moscow of being behind a plot at Leipzig airport where a drone with explosives was found next to a Ukrainian plane laden with jet fuel. Last month, British officials said they disrupted a Russian plot to sabotage a drone factory outside London. In August, an Estonian defense company was set on fire and a weapons storage facility in Bulgaria exploded, though neither has been publicly attributed to Russia.

Many saboteurs have been recruited online by Russia's intelligence services and some have no idea they are working for Moscow. That makes uncovering a plot challenging and attribution often difficult.