Would Labour win an early election? Here’s what the polls say

A sustained polling boost for the new government is fuelling speculation that Andy Burnham is considering an early general election , as a fall in popularity for Reform UK continues.

The governing party has remained consistently above Nigel Farage ’s party for approval since Mr Burnham’s coronation in July, when Labour overtook Reform for the first time since March 2025.

The new leadership has also hit the ratings of Zack Polanski ’s Green Party , which has seen a drop in support over the past few months.

The government has said that it does not intend to call an early election. However, Labour sources told The Independent last week that the by-election to replace Sir Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras is being seen as a test run for the possibility.

The former prime minister announced that he would be leaving parliament earlier this month after resigning as prime minister and Labour leader to make way for Mr Burnham.

Mr Polanski has confirmed that he will stand as the Green candidate for the seat next month, in what will be a key test for the new government .

Opposition parties also appear to be preparing for the country to go to the polls early, with Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey having revealed a manifesto working group has already been formed.

Meanwhile, Reform sources have suggested Mr Burnham could be convinced to call an early election depending on the outcome of the London by-election.

They told The i that if Labour’s candidate beats Mr Polanski “convincingly”, he could be dismissed a “dud” and convince Labour that the progressive vote was uniting behind them once again.

A Tory source also told the paper a victory over the Greens in Holborn and St Pancras could “tempt” the prime minister into an early vote.

“[Burnham’s] whole thing is to consolidate the left,” they said. “If he continues to constrict the Green vote then it will tempt him into an early election whilst the right remains split.”

Under Sir Keir’s leadership, polling showed that Labour began to lose support from left-leaning voters over issues such as Gaza and welfare spending.

This coincided with a boost to the Greens, which recorded a high of around 14 per cent approval in April this year, based on an average of top pollsters, compared to a Labour low of 19 per cent in the same month.

Pollsters have broadly forecast that Labour will win the contest, taking a nearly 50 per cent majority in the seat in 2024.