LSU head coach Lane Kiffin is making the same mistake his predecessor did, will he suffer the same fate?

It's probably fair to say that year one for Lane Kiffin at LSU isn't going quite how most people envisioned it when he was hired.

The Tigers gave Kiffin a $93 million contract and one of the most expensive rosters in college football, and six games into his first campaign on the bayou, the Lane Train is 4-2 and staring down the barrel of missing the College Football Playoff if his team comes away with another loss during a brutal back half of the schedule.

Even in today's day and age of instant roster upgrades, though, I tend to give most coaches a pass in their first year at a new school (within reason).

WHAT DOES A REALISTICALLY SUCCESSFUL FIRST YEAR LOOK LIKE FOR HEAD COACH LANE KIFFIN AT LSU? Weird highs and lows can occur and players still need time to adapt to the culture and expectations set by the new staff, so going solely off of results on the field can leave fans ready to hit the eject button before enough data has been compiled.

For that reason, I like to pay attention to what's happening off the field as much as on it, and there is a key thread throughout Kiffin's recruiting strategy that could be a tell for whether or not he will succeed in Baton Rouge.

If we take a look at LSU's 2027 recruiting class as it stands right now, nothing looks too alarming.

The Tigers sit at 11th in the 247Sports composite rankings, which is really good albeit not elite, but with only 16 commits, it still has plenty of room to grow.

The ranking isn't necessarily the problem.

The sticking point here is entirely geographical.

Just to offer up a bit of a background note on Louisiana high school football before we continue, it has long been said that The Boot is one of the most talent rich states per capita in the entire country.

Every successful LSU coach in the 21st century, from Nick Saban to Les Miles to Ed Orgeron , has made locking down the Tigers' home state a priority, and the results speak for themselves.

Kiffin is letting the talent from Louisiana seep through his hands, and it's not an overreaction to say that could spell doom for him.

Of the top ten prospects in the 2027 recruiting class from Louisiana according to 247Sports, LSU has four of them.

Not bad, until you realize that, of the four prospects who carry a five-star rating only one of them is currently committed to the Tigers.