AI could help unlock more oil — and emissions

Move over, data centers.

AI's climate impact may extend well beyond the electricity it consumes.

Why it matters: A new peer-reviewed study finds AI could help produce more oil and natural gas — and produce a climate impact the authors argue could far outweigh the technology's benefits for renewable energy.

Driving the news: The research, just published in a Nature journal, concludes AI's role in boosting oil and gas production would outweigh its climate benefits from accelerating renewable energy, leading to a net increase in emissions under a range of scenarios.

The study is among the first to estimate how AI-driven gains in fossil fuel production could affect global emissions.

"Most assessments of AI's climate impact are framed as a tradeoff between data center energy use and the emissions AI might help avoid through renewables and efficiency gains," said Holly Alpine, co-author of the paper.

"What's missing from that calculation entirely is the other side of the same ledger: the emissions enabled from using AI to make fossil fuel production cheaper and more profitable," Alpine said.

Holly Alpine and Will Alpine , former Microsoft employees who founded the nonprofit initiative Enabled Emissions Campaign in 2024, co-led the study with researchers from Purdue University and an independent researcher.

How it works: AI can help oil companies find new resources and recover more from existing fields.

It can also help renewable energy by improving forecasting and operations.

The new study argues the fossil-fuel gains are likely to dominate.

By the numbers: The researchers estimate AI could add emissions equal to roughly 1% to 5% of the global energy sector's 2024 emissions under the scenarios they modeled.

The study estimates those emissions would be roughly three to 13 times the International Energy Agency's estimate of current data-center emissions.

The other side: A spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry's main trade group, disputed the idea that more energy and lower emissions are in conflict.