McConnell Bettors Make Stunning Call as Absence Hits 80 Days

Drew Angerer/Getty Images Sen.

Mitch McConnell’s absence from work has reached the 80-day mark—but bettors are less confident than ever that he will actually resign.

The odds of McConnell stepping down before the Nov.

3 midterms have cratered to just seven percent on the prediction market Kalshi , which has accepted millions in wagers on whether the 84-year-old senior senator from Kentucky will still be in office come Election Day.

That is more than 40 percentage points below the peak odds for McConnell’s resignation.

That peak was in February, when Kalshi pegged his chance of resigning by the midterms at 48.8 percent.

That spike followed McConnell checking himself into a Washington-area hospital on Feb.

2 with flu-like symptoms.

McConnell’s mysterious new health scare, which has kept him from working for more than two-and-a-half months, briefly spiked his odds of resigning again.

They rose as high as 34.8 percent on July 7, when McConnell was hospitalized and had yet to release any update on his condition, but dropped sharply to a 12.3 percent chance after he shared a proof-of-life photo on July 12 that suggested, despite his clearly declining health, that he was intent on remaining in office.

His odds of resigning have steadily fallen ever since, bottoming out on Aug.

25 at six percent.

McConnell’s office—run by his chief of staff Terry Carmack, who refuses to answer questions on his boss’s condition despite raking in a salary of more than $226,000—has repeatedly puzzled the public with its bizarre updates about the senator.

His office claims he did not suffer “a heart attack or a stroke,” despite a 911 call mentioning cardiac arrest on June 14.