Inflation runs hotter than expected at 3.7% in September, the last CPI report before the midterms

Inflation likely worsened in September in one of the last price reports the government will issue before the midterm elections that have been heavily defined by concerns over affordability .

Consumer prices are forecast to have risen 3.6% in September compared with a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, according to a survey of economists by data provider FactSet.

The Labor Department will issue the report Wednesday morning.

On a monthly basis, prices are expected to have risen 0.6% from August to September, FactSet said, up from 0.4% the previous month and the biggest jump since April.

The figures will likely underscore the lingering impact of the Iran war on gas prices and the stubborn persistence of inflation, which has fallen sharply from a 9.1% peak in 2022 but has ticked higher since the war began in late February.

Elevated inflation has posed political problems for Republicans in Congress and is a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which is required by Congress to seek stable prices.

Ongoing inflation has taken a toll on Trump’s standing with U.S. voters.

A poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that just 17% of U.S. adults approve of his handling of the cost of living issue.

And only 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall, a new low.

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices likely rose 2.5% in September from a year ago, up slightly from 2.4% in August.

That is closer to the Fed’s 2% inflation target, but it has been stuck at mostly that level since January of this year — just before the Iran war.

Core prices are forecast to have risen just 0.2% from August to September.

Federal Reserve officials are watching inflation data closely to determine whether they need to raise their short-term interest rate further, and by how much.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said last month that inflation isn’t moving quickly enough back to the central bank’s target, causing the Fed to hike rates for the first time in three years, to about 3.9%.