Mission Improbable: Onetime Republican trying to prove Democrats can win in Florida

David Jolly, a former Republican now running for Florida governor as a Democrat, is trying to revive the state's political battleground status

LEESBURG, Fla. -- Cyn Doyle is a self-described political cynic. So when David Jolly , the Republican-turned-independent who is now running for Florida governor as a Democrat, swung through this town dotted by lakes and Spanish moss, she had doubts.

“How can you assure us,” the 71-year-old pressed, “that you won't become another John Fetterman ?”

As the crowd in the clubhouse of a manufactured home community for seniors jeered the mention of the contrarian Pennsylvania Democratic senator, Jolly, who once critiqued politicians as an MSNBC pundit, made the case for himself.

“Change is part of my journey,” he responded. “What I can tell you is that the values I speak of — that the economy should work, that government can do a little bit to improve our lives and that everyone should have the right to be protected — those are the guideposts for how I'll serve as governor.”

Doyle, an independent who said she's a registered Democrat mostly to participate in primaries, left impressed.

Florida spent a generation as America’s prized political battleground, where the interests of big cities, agricultural towns, freshly arrived retirees and diverse Latino communities collided in elections often decided by fractions of a percentage point.

In the course of a single day last weekend, he rallied a chandeliered ballroom in The Villages, a wealthy Republican-leaning retirement community. Then it was off to the fluorescent lights of the Leesburg clubhouse before ending with a rousing speech to Democrats in Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, which backed a Republican presidential candidate for the first time in 20 years in 2024.

President Donald Trump's rise has coincided with a Democratic collapse in Florida. He won here three times, with ever-expanding margins. The 19-percentage-point win by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022 cemented a GOP supermajority in the legislature.

Jolly's path to victory could be blocked by both math and money in his likely race against Rep. Byron Donalds , the Trump-backed candidate in Tuesday's Republican primary. Donalds, who would be Florida's first Black governor, has raised more than $100 million compared to Jolly's $10 million.

Donalds has cast Jolly as an out-of-touch liberal, blanketing the state this week with an ad featuring Jolly referring to “gender-affirming care” and backing communities painting rainbow crosswalks to show support for LGBTQ people.