Japan’s Strategic Turn

When I first visited Japan more than 30 years ago, the Cold War had ended, China had not yet risen, and the country—although it was no longer the Japan as Number One of Ezra Vogel’s best-selling 1979 book—was formidable.

Japan’s GDP was not very far behind that of the United States, was larger than that of most of the rest of Asia combined, and was seven times that of China.

On a recent visit, I found a very different country.

Even in 1995, there were ominous signs: the collapse of property prices and several years—which would stretch into decades—of economic stagnation.

Birth rates were below replacement, at roughly 1.4 per woman, although they have since fallen further, to a bit more than 1.1.

But some of the biggest changes lie in Japan’s geopolitical environment.

Today, Japan’s GDP is roughly a fifth of China’s, and although the size of its armed forces remains roughly the same as in the past, it is now far outstripped by that of its continental neighbor.

Back in 1995, North Korea was still a decade away from testing a nuclear weapon; today, it has dozens or even scores of weapons that it can deliver.

And back then, Russia was still recovering from its rocky transition out of Communist rule; today, it is aligned with China and routinely provides military technology to China and North Korea.

Small wonder that the Japanese political, military, and intelligence leaders as well as academic experts I recently spoke with were grim.

They cling to their security treaty with the United States, but their government is also doing once-unthinkable things to ensure their own defense. [ Michael Schuman: China is flatlining ] For most of the postwar period, Japan relied on its defense treaty with the Americans and on robust economic growth.

Defense spending was held at 1 percent of GDP, but its economy was so much larger than those of its neighbors that this meant a relatively substantial investment in the Japan Self-Defense Forces.

Despite its love of samurai movies and martial arts, Japan remained a pacifist country that did not export weapons, focused on defensive missions, and pledged not to produce, possess, or host nuclear weapons.

All of that has changed.