3 takeaways from David Crowley’s comeback: From the Politics Desk

In today’s edition, we break down the key lessons from last night’s Wisconsin primary upset. Plus, Andrea Mitchell digs into the fraying relationship between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Five weeks ago, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley dropped out of the Wisconsin governor’s race, saying “it has become clear that I will not be the Democratic nominee.”

Today, that’s exactly what he is. Crowley’s primary victory is one of the more astonishing political comebacks in recent memory. He relaunched his campaign 10 days after he ended it, as establishment Democrats embarked on a last-minute mission to stop the rise of state Rep. Francesca Hong , a democratic socialist.

1. An unusually volatile race. There were several twists and turns that shook up the final stretch of the primary. In addition to Crowley’s re-emergence, two other prominent contenders — Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes — also abruptly dropped out last month.

Left with two leading candidates in Hong and Crowley, neither of whom had ever run statewide, a large chunk of the electorate didn’t decide who they were backing until late. A Marquette University Law School poll conducted July 22-27 showed that a third of primary voters were undecided and 16% backed Barnes, who would end his campaign days later. The survey showed Hong at 38% — close to her final vote share, as Bridget Bowman points out — and Crowley at 7%.

That suggests undecided voters who weren’t previously tuned in to the midsummer contest swung sharply to Crowley in the closing days.

2. Democratic voters still prize electability. Another important development that happened after the well-regarded Marquette poll was in the field: Hong underwent more intense scrutiny. During a series of national interviews, Hong was pressed on — and walked back — some of her past controversial positions, fueling concerns she was too far outside the mainstream to win a general election in the swing state.

That argument was furthered by Tony Evers , the popular outgoing two-term governor, as he barnstormed the state with Crowley.

Madison voter Ali Plummer told Shaquille Brewster that she backed a lot of Hong’s policies, but ultimately cast her ballot for Crowley because she’s a “risk-averse person.”

“In the primary, you want to vote for your conscience, but I really was like, we’d have to beat Tom Tiffany , so I voted for David Crowley,” Plummer said.

3. The importance of TV ads. As far as competitive statewide contests go, Wisconsin didn’t see much in the way of ad spending. But the ads that did air were largely pro-Crowley leading up to primary day.

Crowley’s campaign and allied outside groups spent $4 million on ads after he got back into the race.