2026 midterm election races to watch

CBS News' Battleground Tracker polling is back for 2026, capturing what's on voters' minds and the key groups to watch coast to coast, as well as what it means for districts, seat estimates and control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Every district and state matters, but CBS News also identifies nine key Senate and 42 House races that will likely decide the majority — all of which can change as the campaign rolls on.

Democrats and Republicans are focusing on a small number of races in the House and the Senate as they fight for control of Congress in the midterm elections this fall.

Republicans, who currently have the majority in both chambers, are vulnerable primarily because of the unpopular Iran war and continuing cost-of-living economic pressure.

Republicans have 53 seats, and Democrats have 47. Most of the 22 seats the GOP is defending are in states Mr. Trump easily won in 2024. Democrats must add a net total of four seats to take the majority while also defending a few seats against GOP challenges.

GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola are the front-runners in Alaska's top-four primary, where another candidate by the same name as the incumbent is also on the ballot. Alaska hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, but the party is eyeing the race as a pickup opportunity.

GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and state Rep. Josh Turek are facing off in Iowa after Sen. Joni Ernst decided not to seek reelection. The race has grown surprisingly competitive in a state that's shifted to the right in recent years, as affordability issues and the Trump tariff policies weigh on Iowans.

GOP Sen. Susan Collins is defending her seat against Troy Jackson, who became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner bowed out of the race in July following a sexual assault allegation. Collins has survived challenges in previous reelection fights, but Democrats are optimistic about their chances in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024 by almost 7 points.

Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed are vying for an open seat in Michigan after Sen. Gary Peters decided to retire from Congress. El-Sayed is a progressive former Michigan health official who defeated a more moderate opponent in a divisive Democratic primary, while Rogers is seeking the seat after losing a bid to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last cycle.

GOP Sen. Jon Husted is defending his seat against a comeback bid by former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his reelection bid in Ohio's other Senate seat last cycle. Democrats are hoping Brown's working-class brand will propel him to victory against Husted, the former lieutenant governor who was appointed to JD Vance's seat last year after Vance became vice president.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico are competing in a closely watched contest in the Lone Star State. Democrats saw their chances of flipping the seat improve after Paxton defeated incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn, given Paxton's history of personal controversies and more conservative positions.