Anthropic’s $2 trillion problem: Its underlying business is nowhere near the IPO valuation it wants

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The awkward part of the $2 trillion Anthropic IPO is that the company reportedly isn’t making any net income yet. At valuation multiples common to large-cap companies in the Nasdaq 100, Anthropic would need to post annual profits in the neighborhood of $59 billion to $79 billion to keep pace. It is nowhere near that right now, Fortune’s Amanda Gerut reports .

At $2 trillion, Anthropic’s valuation on the scale of Amazon's, at $2.86 trillion. Amazon’s Q2 revenues ($200.6 billion) generated $62.6 billion of net income.

Anthropic looks like a minnow next to Amazon. The Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic’s second-quarter 2026 revenue would more than double to $10.9 billion, and the company would for the first time post an operating profit, which is not the same as net earnings.

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At Macquarie, Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry have been forensically dissecting a week-old article in The Financial Times about Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. It reported that “people close to Warsh” and “people familiar with his thinking” (hmm!) admitted that Warsh had a rocky first 10 weeks at the central bank, as illustrated by the jump in long-term Treasury yields after Warsh failed to convince the markets he was serious about hitting the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

The Macquarie pair believes the Fed will deliver an interest rate rise later this year, because inflation has been higher than 2% for five straight years.

“There was also an important signal last week that Warsh is taking corrective action following the July press briefing and the loss of credibility that ensued,” the analysts said in a note seen by Fortune .