GOP's Latino gains fade as deeper gender and generational divides emerge

Latino voters swung sharply toward Republicans in 2024.

Now, much of that gain is fading as gender and generational divides widen.

Why it matters: The GOP breakthrough two years ago hasn't produced a uniformly more conservative Latino electorate, as Democrats have regained ground in polling this year.

But an Axios analysis of recent polls shows Latino voters aren't simply swinging right, then left.

The data show Latino politics fragmenting from within, as young Latino men and women increasingly split over immigration, President Trump and democracy.

By the numbers: Democrats lead Republicans 56%-29% on the generic House ballot among 1,353 Latino registered voters in seven battleground states, according to a new bipartisan BSP Research/Shaw & Co. poll for the American Business Immigration Coalition and American Families United.

Among Latino voters, Democrats lead in six states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.

Florida breaks the pattern, with Republicans holding a 44%-43% edge.

The pollsters calculated that Democrats' advantage among Latinos is 11 points wider than their Latino margin in 2024.

Neither party escapes voter dissatisfaction: 39% view congressional Democrats unfavorably, compared with 63% unfavorably for congressional Republicans.

State of play: Inflation and gas prices remain voters' biggest concerns, but immigration remains highly salient — though voters don't choose between enforcement and legalization as an either-or.

63% called the treatment of immigrants one of their top issues, while 59% said the same about creating legal status for undocumented immigrants with U.S.-citizen family members.

76% preferred a candidate position calling for a bipartisan path to permanent legal status and immigration reform, compared with 24% who preferred a deportation-focused position.

More than 70% in every state surveyed also backed strengthening border security while providing work permits to long-term undocumented immigrants who work and pass a background check.