Will mortgage rates drop below 6% in 2026?

Mortgage rates haven't been particularly ideal this year. Though rates started out the year in the low 6% range (and even fell under it at one point), mortgage rates have since been 6.5% or higher for most of the summer. Just recently, though, they climbed to an average 6.75% on conventional 30-year mortgage loans.

There are many reasons for the spike in rates , including re-accelerating inflation, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next rate moves. But mortgage rates aren't set in stone, and there's still a chance rates could drop for hopeful homebuyers this year.

The question is how likely is that, and how low could they go? Here's what experts say about the chances of sub-6% mortgage rates as we close out 2026.

Mortgage rates have hovered in the mid- to upper-6% range for most of the year. For rates to move lower than that, a few things would need to happen, according to lending pros.

First, "core inflation would have to show consistent signs of cooling — back toward the Fed's 2% target," says Carolyn Morganbesser, associate vice president of mortgage originations at Affinity Federal Credit Union.

The keyword there is "consistent." While inflation has fallen the last two months, that only occurred after a very steady run-up earlier in the year. And at one point this year, the inflation rate actually hit its highest level in three years.

If the inflation rate keeps moving lower over the next few months, however, it could influence the Federal Reserve and lead to lower interest rates. Even then, though, those rates might just be slightly lower and not anything notable.

"Even if the Federal Reserve lowers short-term interest rates, mortgage rates may not decline proportionately if investors remain concerned about inflation or increasing federal debt," says Bill Dawley, senior vice president of residential lending at Amegy Bank.

For a significant reduction in mortgage rates — say, to that sub-6% point — much more drastic shifts in the economy would need to happen, experts say.

"Three factors could bring rates below 6%: a durable resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, Core PCE inflation convincingly holding below 3%, and unemployment rising to 4.5% or higher," says Jeff Taylor, board member for the Mortgage Bankers Association and founder and managing director at Mphasis Digital Risk.

There's a slight chance that mortgage rates fall later this year. However, the odds have stacked up against it.

"There are simply too many external factors right now keeping rates high," says Andrew Veilleux, home loan specialist at Churchill Mortgage. "Three major issues are the current conflict in the Middle East, persistent inflation, and our growing national debt."

All those persisting issues impact the Fed's next moves, and under current conditions, the central bank doesn't appear to be eyeing rate cuts, at least not in the next month or two.

"Throughout much of 2026, the markets have adjusted their expectations toward fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts and, at times, have even considered the possibility of additional rate increases," Dawley says.